Next set of picks will come late December 30, after the Holiday Bowl. Rose and Fiesta Bowl previews wil be up before then.
Tangerine Bowl (I refuse to use corporate names unless necessary), Orlando, Florida – West Virginia (-2.5) vs NC State, 330 PM PT Dec. 28, ESPN
West Virginia is in turmoil coaching wise right now, but there are no changes being made to the defense that carried this team. Considering defense usually have the advantage in bowl games because of the layoff and the offense was terrible despite the nine wins anyway, the Mountaineers will win though it will be ugly. Then we can get ready for next season's shotgun wedding fueled implosion.
West Virginia 21, NC State 10
Insight Bowl, Tempe, Arizona – Missouri (-2.5) vs Iowa, 7 PM PT Dec. 28, ESPN
Missouri has the much better team and Iowa seems to be falling apart at the seams. The Missouri defense will control this game as the layoffs for teams get longer giving the advantages to defense and while the Iowa defense is good, it can be had particularly in the secondary.
Missouri 27, Iowa 14
Military Bowl, Washington DC – East Carolina vs Maryland (-7.5), 1130 AM PT Dec. 29, ESPN
No amount of time can save the East Carolina defense. They are that bad and Maryland is going to bomb away on them like everybody else this season has even if they don't much care about the game. The question is will the Maryland defense care enough to show up to play for a lame duck coach against an inferior opponent in a close to home bowl game. They will, kind of, but that will be enough opposite one of the worst defenses to ever reach a bowl game.
Maryland 48, East Carolina 35
Texas Bowl, Houston, Texas – Illinois vs Baylor (-1.5), 3 PM PT Dec. 29, ESPN
Who wants to be here more? For Baylor, this is its first bowl game in a long time. For Illinois, this is only the 3rd since 1999 and the first since 2007. The Illinois defense has been good in stretches this season while the offense has found its way while the Baylor defense has been outright bad for much of the year opposite a strong offense. This one comes down to which is better prepared. When Ron Zook is involved in that discussion, take the other guy.
Baylor 34, Illinois 28
Alamo Bowl, San Antonio, Texas – Oklahoma St. (-5.5) vs Arizona, 615 PM PT Dec. 29, ESPN
Arizona stumbled home after a big start that had them in the top 15 at the end of October. That said, there are no huge wins since Iowa went in the tank and the Wildcats finished in the middle of a mediocre Pac-10. Against the Cowboys, they will find no relief. Justin Blackmon is going to incinerate this team like he has everyone else and the Oklahoma St. running game will find room as well, even if a take a quarter to get rolling.
Oklahoma St. 38, Arizona 21
Armed Forces Bowl, Dallas, Texas – SMU (-7) vs Army, 9 AM PT Dec. 30, ESPN
Army is a bad team. In fact, along with Middle Tennessee and UTEP, they are one of the three worst teams in a bowl game. If SMU bothers, they will win and since it is on the Mustangs home field, I have to think they will try in front of the home fans.
SMU 27, Army 20
Pinstripe Bowl, New York City – Syracuse (pick) vs Kansas St., 1220 PM PT Dec. 30, ESPN
This should be interesting if nothing else as these two get together for their every once in awhile bowl meeting (previously met in 1997 Fiesta Bowl and 2001 Insight Bowl). This year, Syracuse brings a top level defense and a team that hasn't played in a bowl game since before any of the current players were on the roster. Kansas St. brings no defense or passing game (how did they get here?) and the game will likely be played with snow on the ground and cold temperatures. With all those factors in play, go with the team with the better defense. Syracuse has been very good on that side of the ball, especially away from home while Kansas St. has one of the worst run defenses in America.
Syracuse 24, Kansas St. 20
Music City Bowl, Nashville, Tennessee – North Carolina (-2) vs Tennessee, 340 PM PT, ESPN
North Carolina gets one last game before the NCAA Axe of Doom falls upon them. They aren't going to make the most of it. Tennessee rolled through the final month of the season and I expect them to continue rolling behind quarterback Tyler Bray here. The Vols will use this as a stepping stone to contending in the weak SEC East next season.
Tennessee 31, North Carolina 20
Holiday Bowl, San Diego, California – Nebraska (-14.5) vs Washington, 7 PM PT, ESPN
Does Nebraska have any interest in being here? Of all the top teams in the Big 12, they got the worst bowl assignment (sent to the same locale as last year to play a team they beat by 35 points on the road in September). While I think the Cornhuskers will go through the motions, the level of beating I saw in September was way too much to pick the Huskies even if Jake Locker plays decently and Nebraska doesn't bother.
Nebraska 31, Washington 21
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