As usual, home team is listed first. With so many Friday games this week, the day of the game will be listed along with its time and network. All game time are PACIFIC Time. Odds are current as of 7PM PT according to Station Casinos in Las Vegas.
Results
Last Week Straight Up: 6-4 Against the Spread: 5-4-1
Season Straight Up: 80-40 Against the Spread: 58-57-5
Special 15 Games this week because of the sheer number of important games.
Game of the Week (Year) – Alabama (-4.5) vs Auburn, 1130 AM Friday, CBS
Since Auburn and LSU got to their game undefeated, I have been saying LSU would beat Alabama (they did) and that Alabama would beat Auburn. I'm not changing now even though I think that Alabama won't stop Newton. It will be more that the Auburn defense finally capitulates combined with a slow start from the Tigers after the bye week as they get their legs under themselves again.
Alabama 41, Auburn 38
Nevada vs Boise St. (-14), 715 PM Friday, ESPN
Lost in all the Boise love lately and the thought that this is just another slightly more difficult step on the way to another undefeated season is that Nevada's personnel matches up with Boise about as well as any team in the country. Boise has better talent but has struggled in this game recently including close calls the last two time they have played on the blue turf. Colin Kaepernick is one of the best quarterbacks in college football and Nevada has been nearly unstoppable on offense except for one odd game at Hawaii and many odd things happen on the islands in games. The problem is the Nevada defense, while much improved, still won't stop Boise enough to get the win.
Boise St. 41, Nevada 31
Oregon (-19.5) vs Arizona, 4PM Friday, ESPN
Arizona has one of the best defenses in the Pac-10 and seems better equipped to deal with Oregon's spread than a smash mouth running game (see getting gouged by Stanford and USC on the ground). They also have been a consistent thorn in the side of Oregon taking them to double overtime last season and winning in 2006 and 2007 (ending a run at the national title in 07). Too bad the offense hasn't been very good lately and though the defense will play an inspired game, it won't matter here.
Oregon 41, Arizona 20
Oklahoma St. (-2.5) vs Oklahoma, 5PM Saturday, ABC Regional/ESPN Gameplan (Seriously, no ABC or reverse mirror for nearly half of the country because of USC/Notre Dame)
This might be the best team in Oklahoma St. history, but to make that claim, it must finally beat Oklahoma. Despite the throw the records out cliche many talk about in this game and many other rivalry games, that just doesn't apply here. Oklahoma almost always wins and most Oklahoma St. wins are massive upsets (see 2001). With that kind of history, the Cowboys are fighting an uphill battle, especially against an Oklahoma team that have finally found its road mojo last week.
Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma St. 34
Arkansas (-3.5) vs LSU, 1230 PM Saturday, CBS
Arkansas has been playing very good football, especially on offense the last few weeks, but I question the level of competition overall. Other than the road win against Mississippi St. that went to double overtime last week, Arkansas has played nobody since the loss to Auburn and don't give me South Carolina. The Gamecocks might as well have been a Conference USA team with the game meaning nothing in the conference race for them and Marcus Lattimore out. Considering that, we are looking at a four quarter game and it takes a transcendent player like a Tim Tebow/Cam Newton type to overcome the Les Miles luck and win that kind of game against this LSU team. Just don't ask me how they are going to win this week. I have no idea.
LSU 27, Arkansas 23
Ohio St. (-17) vs Michigan, 9AM Saturday, ABC
Michigan has no defense. Ohio St. has one of the best defenses in the country. This difference and the homefield should make Michigan's very slight advantage on offense very insignificant.
Ohio St. 45, Michigan 27
Penn St. vs Michigan St. (-1.5), 9AM Saturday, ESPN2
Michigan st. has been living on the edge all season winning close game after close game. The luck stop here. Penn St. has been steadily improving as the season has progressed while Michigan St. has made a program out of blowing huge games like this one for quite some time. Evan Royster is going to have a huge day on the ground for the Nittany Lions.
Penn St. 31, Michigan St. 27
Wisconsin (-23.5) vs Northwestern, 1230 PM Saturday, ABC/ESPN
Northwestern has nothing going for it in this game. The run defense has collapsed (over 500 yards against last week to Illinois) right before facing the best running game in the Big Ten, the game is on the road, Dan Persa remains injured, Wisconsin has everything to play for with the Rose Bowl likely awaiting them if they win and the Badgers are going to be out for revenge after losing this game last season. Get the calculator out, we are going to need it.
Wisconsin 61, Northwestern 17
NC State (-2.5) vs Maryland, 1230 PM Saturday, ESPN2
Both of these teams have been much like Michigan St. Put the big carrot out there whether than be true respect, a conference title or anything else of real importance other than spoiler and the result generally isn't good. Maryland already blew it last week against Florida St. and NC State will blow it this week against a Maryland team with nothing to play for. That is just the way things happen in the ACC Atlantic. Nobody ever really seems to want to win this division. Florida St. should be lucky they can't give it away this either.
Maryland 27, NC State 20
Pittsburgh (-2.5) vs West Virginia, 9AM Friday, ABC
West Virginia is unspeakably bad on offense this season, but Pittsburgh is just a bad football team that the Fiesta Bowl is praying loses another game. They will manage it here as there is no way they are going to move the ball against West Virginia's legitimately good defense.
West Virginia 16, Pittsburgh 9
Texas vs Texas A&M (-3.5), 5PM Thursday (Happy Thanksgiving), ESPN
It is incredibly hard to win Thursday road games on a short week. Only Auburn has managed it this season (against Mississippi St.) and the ACC gives teams bye weeks before Thursday games because all of their good teams (when they had good teams in 2006-7) kept losing to inferior opponents on short weeks. That means Texas has a chance, but it is only a chance because the A&M defense is playing its best football in close to ten years right now. That will be enough considering the state of the Texas offense this season.
Texas A&M 20, Texas 14
Utah (-9.5) vs BYU, 1230 PM Saturday, CBS College Sports/MTN
Utah has not been playing great football the last few weeks while BYU has suddenly rounded into shape. Considering how young the Cougars are, the recovery has been impressive. Way back in the Mountain West season preview I wrote BYU would struggle early but round into form and upset Utah at the end. Jake Heaps will see that it happens against a Utah defense that has collapsed the last three weeks.
BYU 37, Utah 27
Nebraska (-17.5) vs Colorado, 1230 PM Friday, ABC
Colorado could have packed it in after watching their coach get fired, but they have played inspired football. Meanwhile, Nebraska suddenly needs this game to win the Big 12 North after losing at Texas A&M last week. They will get it, but it won't be easy and it will only be because Colorado doesn't have much of a defense and the Colorado passing game won't be good enough to overcome the dominant Nebraska secondary.
Nebraska 27, Colorado 17
Florida St. (-2.5) vs Florida, 1230 PM Saturday, ABC/ESPN
Florida St. is the better team, but Urban Meyer makes skid marks out of rivals better than any coach in the country. He will have some wrinkle ready that will get the Gators the win, somehow. Even if that is wait for Florida St. to make its inevitable mistakes and take advantage.
Florida 30, Florida St. 21
Clemson vs South Carolina (-3), 4PM Saturday, ESPN2
Clemson was in the spot South Carolina is in this season last year and played a terrible game. South Carolina has Spurrier and he won't let his team do that. In fact, Clemson should come ready to play or they will get a big number hung on themselves. The big number won't happen unless the offense gives up points, but there is no route to victory for the Tigers unless South Carolina simply doesn't show up.
South Carolina 28, Clemson 14
No comments:
Post a Comment