The top ten didn't change at all this week after everyone won. The big stories of the week are:
Boise St. is now in position to re-jump TCU – The Broncos were the big beneficiaries of a lot of TCU related things. First, TCU was underwhelming against a good San Diego St. team (the Aztecs are roughly equal, maybe slightly better than Hawaii who got obliterated on the blue turf). Second, the collective TCU schedule took the day off with Utah losing at Notre Dame, Baylor losing to Texas A&m and SMU still at home seething after losing to UTEP. Oregon St. also lost (to Washington St. of all teams) but since Boise St. played them too it doesn't hurt TCU, at least in comparison to Boise. This weekend was the worst case scenario for TCU.
Oregon and Auburn are still fine if they win out – Nothing changed here. Both of these teams win out and they play for the title. Now they both have a bye week (as does TCU) to rest and get everything rolling again. This comes just in time for Oregon who got beat up in the win over Cal on Saturday while Auburn would probably want to continue playing and just get everything over with considering all of the Cam Newton stuff that is out there.
Iowa's loss helps Michigan St. - The Hawkeyes lost to Northwestern bringing Michigan st. closer to the needed two way tie with Wisconsin to get to the Rose Bowl. The Spartans are well down in the BCS standings and need to tiebreaker to be head-to-head, something they done have the option of with Ohio St.
LSU who can't win their conference and Stanford who probably won't remain a buffer between the non-BCS schools and the first real one-loss threat – If Auburn or Oregon lose, TCU or Boise St. is going to the title game. With all the Cam Newton stuff out there, a one-loss Auburn that loses to Alabama and wins the SEC isn't getting the benefit of the doubt that a one-loss SEC team normally would. Meanwhile, Oregon with a loss won't have the computer numbers to get to the title game unless they remain number one in the polls, something that won't happen if they lose. With LSU and Stanford not winning their conferences, the non-BCS schools are in the clear because seventh-ranked Wisconsin isn't jumping that far up no matter how many times they score 83 points.
BCS Bowl Projections
National Title Game - Oregon vs Boise St.
Once Auburn loses to Alabama, the road will be clear for a non-BCS team to play for the title. I think the voters will put Boise St. in that position over TCU as much because of the victory in the Fiesta Bowl last season as anything else. Oregon won't lose at Autzen and Oregon St. seems to be melting down so the Ducks probably won't lose.
Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford
I now think with Iowa having lost that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten outright. Michigan St. will lose to Penn St. and Ohio St. will lose to Iowa, but even if those things don't happen, the Badgers win all tiebreakers except to head-to-head with Michigan St. as long as they keep winning. With the non-BCS slot taken in the title game, the Rose Bowl picks Stanford to replace its lost Pac-10 champ, even if the Cardinal lose another game to finish 10-2.
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU
If the choice comes down to non-BCS or LSU, the Orange will no doubt take the Tigers. That said, LSU should watch out because a Nebraska loss in the Big 12 Title game could send the Cornhuskers here instead. The Orange has a long and productive relationship with Nebraska and will exploit that in a second if given the opportunity.
Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Ohio St.
The Sugar picking first is tired of no name teams. They have has Cincinnati, Utah and Hawaii in the last three seasons. No amount of money or pressure is going to get them to pass on whoever is second in the Big 10, even if that team has two losses. I still project Auburn to lose to Alabama and then beat South Carolina putting the Tigers in New Orleans.
Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh
Nebraska will win the Big 12 and Pittsburgh is my best guess out of the Big East. At this point, I would think the Fiesta, knowing they are stuck with the Big East Champ, is hoping West Virginia or Syracuse is the team though. West Virginia at least comes with a traveling horde of fans while Syracuse would be a good story to sell with the revival of the program.
All the teams still in BCS contention by conference after the jump
ACCCoastal Division
Virginia Tech leads by two games. Only Miami can catch the Hokies and that is by winning out and having Virginia upset Virginia Tech. Miami could also be eligible as an at-large for a BCS game by winning out as that might get them to the top 14 though I doubt it and no bowl wants the Hurricanes and its apathetic travelers other than the hometown Orange Bowl and that bowl awaits the ACC champ so the Hurricanes will never be an at-large choice by that game.
Atlantic Division
Maryland and NC State can reach the Orange Bowl by winning out through the ACC Title Game. Florida St. must win out and get a loss by NC State to either North Carolina or Maryland. Nobody in this division harbors even slim at-large hopes.
Big East
Pittsburgh remains in the drivers seat despite losing to UConn last Thursday as they still lead in the loss column. Syracuse , South Florida, UConn and West Virginia are all at two conference losses and in need of varying degrees of help that I don't have the space to get into here. Louisville, Rutgers and Cincinnati are at three conference losses and in all likelihood out of it, but the tiebreakers could break one of their ways in a mass 4-3 tie (were talking like four or five way here.
SEC
West Division
Auburn has won the West and will play for the SEC Title and the auto-bid that goes with it in Atlanta. If Auburn beats Alabama but loses to South Carolina, Auburn would be a viable at-large pick. LSU will likely be an at-large pick by winning out and if they win out will certainly be in the Sugar Bowl if Auburn plays for the national title. Both Arkansas and Alabama need help to reach the at-large pool with any real viability. Alabama needs Arkansas to beat LSU while Arkansas needs Alabama to lose to Auburn. Either team also must win out.
East Division
South Carolina has won the East and will play Auburn for the conference title and the right to go to the Sugar Bowl. Nobody in this division has any hope of an at-large BCS bid.
Big Ten
Wisconsin wins all ties at 7-1 except the two team with Michigan St. that appears to be the Spartans only road to the Rose Bowl. Ohio St. needs a Wisconsin loss while Iowa wins all ties at 6-2 if it comes to that. Of those teams, Wisconsin, Ohio St. and Michigan St. still harbor at-large BCS hopes while Iowa is likely headed to Florida for one of the many Big Ten games played down there.
Big 12
North Division
Nebraska is one win or Missouri loss from clinching the division and the Cornhuskers are a viable at-large team as well. Missouri needs to have Nebraska collapse as they won't get picked as an at-large under any circumstance (anyone who wants to argue that point can refer to 2007 when Missouri was jumped by Kansas in at-large consideration).
South Division
Oklahoma St. can make this easy by winning out. Oklahoma and Texas A&M are in the mix if the Cowboys lose a game needing various tie breaking scenarios to play out in their favor though the Aggies likely need two Oklahoma St. losses to reach the Big 12 Title game in Dallas. None of these teams are in the mix for an at-large at this point.
Pac-10
It is now a two team race. Oregon is likely headed to the title game and even if they lose and miss the title game will go to the Rose Bowl unless they lose both games. Stanford is an at-large candidate for the Rose Bowl only. No other bowl will take them under any circumstance as an at-large this season.
Mountain West
TCU must win out and be better than Boise St. in the BCS standings for an automatic BCS spot. If the Horned Frogs finish behind Boise, they might be enjoying Christmas in Las Vegas instead of New Year's in the BCS.
WAC
Boise St. is in the same position as TCU but with the threat of being stuck at home on the blue turf or playing in San Francisco on the table. Nevada can still win the WAC by winning out and can go to the BCS if they win out and TCU loses to New Mexico (ridiculous though that thought might be).
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