Home Team is listed first, lines are accurate as of 9AM PT Thursday according to Station Casinos in Las Vegas. All games Saturday unless otherwise listed.
Results
Last Week: Straight Up: 6-4 Against the Spread: 5-4-1
Overall: Straight Up: 37-13 Against the Spread: 25-22-3
Game of the Week – Kansas St. vs Nebraska (-12), 430 PM PT Thursday, ESPN
The inside track in the Big 12 North is on the line in two games this week (more on the other one later). This one takes top billing and is one of the best of a relatively weak slate of Thursday night football games this season. In it, we have the Nebraska defense that has played well, but has struggled at times to stop the run against the Kansas St. offense that would love to only run and never throw the ball. I expect Kansas St. to move it better than most are, but I don't think the Kansas St. defense is quite talented enough to stop the Nebraska offense unless the Cornhuskers stop themselves.
Nebraska 27, Kansas St. 21
South Carolina vs Alabama (-6.5), 1230 PM PT, CBS
I am starting to have some serious reservations about the quality of South Carolina. Considering that the best win is against Southern Miss and the last we saw them the Gamecocks were melting down at the end of the Auburn game with the backup quarterback, the Gamecocks have a lot to prove. Alabama has proved a lot over the last two weeks, but I still have some questions about them. For one thing, what if Arkansas really isn't that great. For another, I know Florida and Penn St. aren't up to their normal standards this season. I think Saban is a great coach and his offense is really good this season. That will be enough to survive another tough road game (though it won't be as harrowing as the Arkansas game was).
Alabama 23, South Carolina 14
Michigan (-4.5) vs Michigan St., 1230 PM PT, ABC Regional/ESPN
Neither team has much of a defense, but I trust Michigan St.'s more than I trust Michigan's. Meanwhile, while Denard will have another incredible game, he is going to make some mistakes eventually and this game needs to be close to flawless for the Wolverines to win because Michigan St. might score every time they touch the ball against the terrible Michigan defense.
Michigan St. 42, Michigan 31
Miami (-6) vs Florida St., 5PM PT, ABC Regional/ESPN Gameplan
The winner of this game is which team wins the matchup of Miami offensive line against Florida St. defensive line. If Florida St. wins, Jacory Harris will throw interceptions and Miami loses. If Miami wins, Harris is the first quarterback since the Oklahoma game with time to throw and we all remember what happened to the Seminole pass defense in that game.
Miami 34, Florida St. 24
Florida (-6.5) vs LSU, 430PM PT, ESPN
Unless your favorite play is the punt, this is probably a game to avoid. For the last two weeks up until the clock gaffe, LSU has been among the most boring teams in entire country. Both weeks have had me falling asleep in the middle of their games. Florida has had one good week on offense and other than that looked like a team from the 2005 SEC, when defense ruled with an iron grip and nobody other than LSU, Auburn or Georgia scored any points at all (not coincidentally, those three teams were the best in the league by a wide margin). Both teams also have good defenses. It won't be Auburn-Mississippi St. 3-2 bad or even Alabama-Tennessee 05 6-3 bad, but it could be close. When in doubt, go with the luckiest coach alive.
LSU 13, Florida 10
Ohio St. (-22) vs Indiana, 9AM PT, ESPN
Indiana has gone up and down the field on offense behind quarterback Ben Chappell, but there are questions as to how good the offense really is as the Hoosiers have played three terrible teams and Michigan with its terrible defense. Ohio St. has some questions to answer after last week's close win at Illinois, but that was more likely just conservative Sweatervestball in the first road game than anything to be alarmed about. Indiana offense really is good, it won't matter here against a motivated Buckeye defense.
Ohio St. 41, Indiana 17
Iowa St. vs Utah (-6), 4PM PT, FCS Central
Cyclones blew up Texas Tech last week and now welcome a Utah team that is getting by on name value rather than actual results (who would have thought that) considering the wins are an overtime win against an awful Pittsburgh team, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose St. Not exactly the murderer's row. Iowa St. has been significantly better than expected beating Texas Tech and pushing Kansas St. right down to the wire (along with one ugly performance in a blowout loss to Iowa). That said, Iowa is probably more like Kansas St. and Iowa than Texas Tech at this point. The Cyclones will push hard again and come up short again.
Utah 27, Iowa St. 23
Missouri (-12.5) vs Colorado, 4PM PT, FSN
The other of the Big 12 North shakeout, Colorado has improved significantly since getting hammered by Cal 52-7 in week 2. Missouri has started fast again, but nobody knows anything about them this season other than the defense seems to be a little better than last year and the offense seems to be a step slower than last year. I suspect the Tigers are really good as Illinois and San Diego St., the two closest things to major victims on the Missouri schedule are both much better than people think. The Buffaloes on the other hand, while improved, have cobbled together this 3-1 record with smoke and mirrors, especially on offense.
Missouri 31, Colorado 13
Arizona (-7.5) vs Oregon St., 4PM PT, Versus
Arizona gets another tough game as they move into the Pac-10 meat grinder while Oregon St. continues to play tough games. This is ridiculous in this league this season. Arizona will win behind Nick Foles coming off the bye week for extra preparation and playing a suspect Oregon St. secondary. It won't be easy though.
Arizona 28, Oregon St. 24
Cal (-7.5) vs UCLA, 1230PM PT, FSN
It appears the appearance of the UCLA running game against Texas is not a fluke. They also run the same offense as Nevada: the pistol. Considering that Cal got blown up by this thing the last time they saw it, UCLA has a truck load of momentum with three straight wins and Cal quarterback Kevin Riley can be counted on to throw the ball to the other team, even being able to run it down UCLA's throat (the strength of the Cal team and the weakness of UCLA) isn't going to help here.
UCLA 30, Cal 20
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