I know its a little late but the Oklahoma St.-Texas A&M game last night didn't change anything here.
BCS Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon
I still have both of these teams as the only major conference undefeateds as I believe Alabama is due for a big Championship Saturday upset (its been awhile since we had one of those) and Ohio St. will lose at Wisconsin. Oregon will run the table in the Pac-10 with its toughest remaining games at home while Oklahoma will take advantage of a weak Big 12 to run the table even though they are most certainly not one of the best two teams and won't be even if they do win out.
Rose Bowl – Ohio St. vs Boise St.
The Buckeyes are only going to lose once while Boise St. ends up here because of the Rose Bowl being forced to take the best non-BCS team even if the second place Pac-10 team is in the top 10.
Sugar Bowl – Florida vs Nebraska
Florida lands here as the SEC Champion and the Sugar Bowl picking its team before the Orange takes Nebraska and its traveling horde of fans.
Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Wisconsin
I project Clemson to this game as the ACC Champ but that doesn't really matter. It could be Miami, Virginia Tech or NC State just as easily. On the other side, the second place team in the Pac-10 will be more deserving that Wisconsin, but the Badgers and their traveling fans will get the nod over a Arizona or Stanford.
Fiesta Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia
After losing Oklahoma, the Fiesta has the first pick of teams. Normally this would go to an eligible Big 12 team, but that team is Nebraska and with them on the way out of the league and Alabama on the board after losing the SEC Title Game, the Fiesta takes the Crimson Tide. On the downside, the Fiesta also has the last pick meaning they get leftover West Virginia, the projected Big East champ.
Others considered for BCS games, by league after the jump
SEC
Auburn – Because of the schedule, has the best chance of any of the SEC teams not projected to reach a BCS game and likely has a better chance at the BCS Title Game than Florida does. Plays everyone of consequence at home until the Alabama game.
LSU – The offense isn't going to be strong enough at Auburn or against Alabama to get them to a BCS game unless 10-2 with Alabama undefeated happens. Then a hometown game in the Sugar Bowl is possible.
Arkansas – The loss to Alabama hurts as does the old Southwest Conference perception. For better or worse, this team fits better in the Cotton Bowl than the BCS.
South Carolina – The loss to Auburn last week was crippling. 9-3 won't get it done and that seems to be the best case scenario with Alabama, Arkansas, Florida and Clemson still on the schedule.
ACC
No at-large contenders. Only Miami could make that case and if the Hurricanes end up ranked that high, they will likely be carrying the conference title and the auto-bid that goes with it. The Virginia Tech-NC State winner on Saturday is very much in the conference title mix.
Big East
Same as ACC. The only possible at-large contender is West Virginia who if ranked high enough to actually receive an at-large bid would be the conference champ.
Pac-10
Arizona – The only Pac-10 team to never play in the Rose Bowl has a big problem, even if they finish 11-1. Because of the clause that forces the Rose Bowl to take a non-BCS league team this season if the game loses someone to the title game, Arizona gets locked out of that. At the same time, the Fiesta Bowl picks last among the bowls meaning the other potential landing place for Arizona or another Pac-10 team is likely not an option.
Stanford- Om the the same situation as Arizona, but more likely to beat Oregon and make their way to the Rose Bowl as the conference champion.
Big 12
Kansas St. - if they upset Nebraska next week, that puts the Wildcats in the driver's seat for the Big 12 North. Get that and its one plausible upset away from the Fiesta Bowl.
Missouri – Same as Kansas St. but more unlikely because the Nebraska game is away and Oklahoma is on the schedule. Missouri has issues with Oklahoma on its best days.
Oklahoma St. - The win last night against Texas A&M stamped the Cowboys as the biggest threat to the Oklahoma-Texas winner in the south, but its unlikely with a defense that bad.
Texas – Might win against either Oklahoma or Nebraska, but too young on offense to realistically win the division or finish with the 10-2 record needed to challenge for an at-large BCS berth.
Non-BCS league teams
TCU – If they stay undefeated, they are going to the BCS somewhere. I project a loss to Utah on the road which is why they aren't here.
Utah – Currently playing the JV portion of the schedule. While beating TCU would put them in the conversation, I believe they will lose to either Air Force the week before TCU or Notre Dame the week after.
Air Force – Not likely, but an 11-1 Air Force is a lock because that would include wins over TCU and Utah plus the service academy element that would sell very well.
Nevada – Keep winning, upset Boise St. at the end, go to a BCS game. Must finish undefeated.
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