National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon
With the BCS Rankings now out for the first time this season, everyone else can now see what I have been saying off and on for the last few weeks: Oregon and Oklahoma will play for the title if they win out. Obviously if one of the remaining two SEC teams wins out, they will jump someone to get into the title game, but I don't think that will happen.
Rose Bowl – Iowa vs Boise St.
Iowa has all of its big games ahead of itself and they are all at home. They will win them all on the way to an 11-1 season. Awaiting them will be Boise St. with a perfect record and number 3 ranking.
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
Virginia Tech is here by virtue of being the projected ACC Champ. Alabama will lose on the road to LSU for a second loss but beat Auburn to reach 10-2 and look good to any bowl game.
Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Michigan St.
Auburn will win the SEC despite a loss to Alabama at the end of the regular season and Michigan St. will go 11-1. The Spartans will easily end up in one of the BCS games as they have not been to a major bowl since the 1987 Rose Bowl.
Fiesta Bowl – Texas vs West Virginia
Texas has a good chance to win out and a 10-2 Longhorn teams, while not really a fit for most of the games, the Fiesta because of the relationship with the Big 12, would take them (or one of the other Big 12 teams).
Other At-Large contenders by league after the jump
ACC
No at-large contenders. Win the conference and go to the Orange Bowl.
Big East
No at-large contenders. Win the conference and go to a BCS game, likely the last picking Fiesta Bowl.
Pac-10
Stanford – Could go 11-1 but likely to get squeezed out unless they reach number four in the final BCS standings and the automatic berth that comes with it. With the Fiesta picking last and likely having to take the Big East champion, there is no good landing spot for the Cardinal.
Arizona – Could still go 10-2, but in the same spot as Stanford. Because the Oregon game is still in front of them, the Rose Bowl auto-bid is more likely but neither are good bets at this point.
Big Ten
Ohio St. - Probably not much of an at-large contender unless Michigan St. is the Rose Bowl team. A 10-2 Ohio St. doesn't get into the BCS this season and an 11-1 Ohio St. likely goes back to the Rose Bowl unless Michigan St. is 12-0.
Wisconsin – In the discussion, but I still don't think they are that great and there is no way the Badgers are going to win out and in fact I believe loss number two will be suffered this Saturday.
SEC
LSU – Currently at 7-0, the Tigers are in control of their national title destiny. That said, the offense is awful and will cost the Tigers quickly. 10-2 and no better with Alabama being more marketable meaning no BCS game for LSU.
Arkansas – Needs to win out and get help. Win out is possible but the help isn't likely at this point.
Mississippi St. - Ditto Arkansas, but less likely with Alabama still in front of them on the schedule.
SEC East is all in the same situation as the ACC and Big East. Anyone who wins out gets to the SEC Title game where a loss would eliminate that team from at-large consideration.
Big 12
Missouri – Not a likely at-large team. Bowls just don't want them as was shown when they were 11-2 in 2007. Probably has to win the league to go to a BCS game.
Oklahoma St. - Probably doesn't have the defense to win enough games to reach the BCS, but must be included as they are still undefeated and in a BCS conference.
Nebraska – Attractive team, but the Texas loss may have exposed some flaws. Won't run the table in the regular season.
Non-BCS league teams
TCU – I believe they will lose to Utah so that eliminates the Horned Frogs from consideration.
Utah – The argument about surviving week after week that BCS league supporters use will get put to the test this season. Utah plays Air Force, TCU and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks. That is as difficult a three week stretch as anyone outside of the Pac-10 or SEC will see all season and the Utes will lose the third one at Notre Dame the week after beating TCU.
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