Sep 21, 2010

For Entertainment Only – Computer Rankings Week 3

Below is the new top 25. For those who follow the actual BCS computers, notice that this looks a little different from those that have been released. Much of that is because the computer rankings the BCS rankings uses that have released rankings thus far use last season's results until a certain point in the season so there is a baseline starting point. Those that haven't been released yet are likely to look more like this: chaotic and seemingly inaccurate at this point in time.

  1. Arizona (Pac-10, 3-0)
  2. Oklahoma (Big 12, 3-0)
  3. Missouri (Big 12, 3-0)
  4. Temple (MAC, 3-0)
  5. Stanford (Pac-10, 3-0)
  6. Alabama (SEC, 3-0)
  7. Texas (Big 12, 3-0)
  8. NC State (ACC, 3-0)
  9. Florida (SEC, 3-0)
  10. South Carolina (SEC, 3-0)
  11. Auburn (SEC, 3-0)
  12. Michigan (Big Ten, 3-0)
  13. TCU (MWC, 3-0)
  14. Nevada (WAC, 3-0)
  15. Northwestern (Big Ten, 3-0)
  16. Boise St. (WAC, 3-0)
  17. USC (Pac-10, 3-0)
  18. Michigan St. (Big Ten, 3-0)
  19. Fresno St. (WAC, 3-0)
  20. Nebraska (Big 12, 3-0)
  21. Wisconsin (Big Ten, 3-0)
  22. Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 3-0)
  23. Appalachian St. (FCS Southern, 3-0)
  24. Penn St. (Big Ten, 2-1)
  25. Florida St. (ACC, 2-1)

Thoughts on the rankings and conference rankings after the jump


Where is Ohio St? - In part because the games other than Miami have been nearly as bad as can be scheduled without dipping to the FCS ranks and Miami only has one win and it was over an FCS opponent, the Buckeyes schedule looks much weaker so far than what it will be. In fact, the Ohio St. schedule to date ranks 115.

Temple at number four, the computer is insane – These are the things that happen early in the season in computer rankings that have no previous baseline. That said, this looks weird, even for a computer system like this one and makes no sense looking at the opponents even though I have checked and rechecked it to make sure. Of course Temple could partly justify this by beating Penn St. on Saturday (lose and they will drop).

The Big East and ACC truly are terrible, especially the Big East – No Big East teams appear in the top 25 (only the Sun Belt can match that feat among FBS league) and the ACC only has two, one of which looks fairly dubious despite a surprising start (NC State at 8).

Why is Missouri ranked so highly? - The secret to high computer rankings (and it appears Texas has figured this out too) is to find cream puffs that have no chance to beat you, but will still win some games once they get to conference play. Missouri almost got beat by San Diego St. (valuable win in the computers at this point, will lose value once losses start piling up in Mountain West play), but there is no margin of victory here so it doesn't matter.

Conference Rankings

  1. Pac-10 – Highest Ranked: Arizona (1), Lowest Ranked: Washington (84)
  2. Big 12 – Highest Ranked: Oklahoma (2) Lowest Ranked: Iowa St. (108)
  3. Big Ten – Highest Ranked: Michigan (12), Lowest Ranked: Minnesota (117)
  4. SEC – Highest Ranked: Alabama (6), Lowest Ranked: Ole Miss (127)
  5. ACC – Highest Ranked: NC State (8), Lowest Ranked: North Carolina (164)
  6. WAC – Highest Ranked: Nevada (14), Lowest Ranked: New Mexico St. (218)
  7. Big East – Highest Ranked: Rutgers (45), Lowest Ranked: Louisville (179)
  8. Mountain West – Highest Ranked: TCU (13), Lowest Ranked:Colorado St. (177)
  9. Conference USA – Highest Ranked: Central Florida (33), Lowest Ranked: Marshall (187)
  10. FCS Southern – Highest Ranked: Appalachian St. (23), Lowest Ranked: Elon (221)
  11. FCS CAA – Highest Ranked: James Madison (32), Lowest Ranked: New Hampshire (210)
  12. MAC – Highest Ranked: Temple (4), Lowest Ranked: Bowling Green (228)
  13. FCS Ivy – Teams have only played one game and still have too small of a sample size. If included in the rankings, Yale would be highest and Princeton and Cornell tied for lowest. Instead, each team has been assigned a ranking of 144, equal to 0 points (yes the computer assigns negative points)
  14. FCS Missouri Valley – Highest Ranked: Youngstown St. (66), Lowest Ranked: Indiana St. (206)
  15. FCS Southland – Highest Ranked: McNeese St. (30), Lowest Ranked: Sam Houston St. (223)
  16. FCS Big Sky – Highest Ranked: Sacramento St. (84), Lowest Ranked: Idaho St. (222)
  17. Sun Belt – Highest Ranked: Florida Atlantic (55), Lowest Ranked: North Texas (229)
  18. FCS Patriot – Highest Ranked: Georgetown (104), Lowest Ranked: Bucknell (211)
  19. FCS Northeast – Highest Ranked: Duquesne (67), Lowest Ranked: Monmouth (244, last for second straight week)
  20. FCS SWAC – Highest Ranked: Grambling (109), Lowest Ranked: Alabama A&M (241)
  21. FCS Pioneer – Highest Ranked: Dayton (58), Lowest Ranked: San Diego (243)
  22. FCS Big South – Highest Ranked: Liberty (98), Lowest Ranked: Coastal Carolina (232)
  23. FCS MEAC – Highest Ranked: North Carolina Central (129), Lowest Ranked: Howard (240)
  24. FCS Great West – Highest Ranked: South Dakota (110), Lowest Ranked: Southern Utah (230)
  25. FCS Ohio Valley – Highest Ranked: Jacksonville St. (41), Lowest Ranked: Eastern Kentucky (242)

Reaction after compilation: The Pac-10 is looking really strong thus far while the top of the WAC has been shockingly good. Of course, long-term, the WAC has major issues as its three best teams are moving to the Mountain West. If we took the champions of the six highest ranked conferences into the BCS instead of the six AQ leagues, the WAC would be sittin' pretty at this point.

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