National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon
These two teams seem to be the most likely of the big four league (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10) teams that win any tiebreakers over undefeated Boise St. to be able to go undefeated with the remaining schedules each has. Both also have at least one big non-conference win to hang their hat on though Oregon's record could be quite dubious in that regard if Tennessee doesn't win anything in SEC play (possible this year).
Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.
Ohio St. isn't going to get through the Big Ten undefeated so they return to Pasadena where Boise St. will await after taking advantage of the non-BCS school to the Rose Bowl clause this season.
Fiesta – Arizona vs West Virginia
The Fiesta is going to opt for hometown Arizona as much as a nod to the Pac-10 that has been shafted year after year as anything else and get stuck with Big East champ West Virginia as the last pick. Without question, the Big East champ is going here unless West Virginia wins that league with a 12-0 record.
Sugar – Florida vs Nebraska
I still think Florida is headed to the SEC Title Game (as much because I don't believe in South Carolina or Kentucky as contenders) and I believe we are due for a big Championship Saturday upset to keep Alabama out of the title game. I also think Florida is going to lose twice on the way keeping them out of the National Title Game. Nebraska is going to go 10-2 at an absolute minimum through the regular season but likely 11-1. With a loss in the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers would be a valuable team at 11-2, much more future Big Ten brethren Iowa and Wisconsin will be at 10-2 or 9-3.
Orange – Clemson vs Alabama
Clemson impressed me in the loss at Auburn enough to lock them in as the ACC's representative for now while Alabama goes here because the Sugar won't want Florida/Alabama 3.
Others Considered after the jump
Pac-10 teams
Stanford – Could get easily be eligible, but the 3rd best in the Pac-10 won't be getting the job done
Oregon St. - Would need a win over Boise St. to really get anyone thinking about and has to deal with the loss to TCU. Only real chance is win the league.
Big 12 teams
Texas – A viable option and could very well jump Nebraska to be taken by the Fiesta Bowl as a way for the Big 12 and its partner the Fiesta Bowl to screw Nebraska on the way out of the league. Also could win their way in at 11-1.
Oklahoma St. - a long shot but at 3-0 with some top 25 votes, a possibility if they can finally solve Oklahoma and Texas.
Kansas St. - not an at-large contender at all, but could upset Nebraska at home, win a divisional tiebreaker and pull a championship game upset to head to the Fiesta Bowl. More likely than Oklahoma St. (or Missouri or Texas A&M)
Big Ten teams
Iowa – likely dealt its at-large chances a death blow at Arizona last week, but could win the Big Ten and go to the Rose Bowl.
Wisconsin – Great traveling fans, but not a likely Orange Bowl candidate because of the teams numerous trips to other Florida games in recent years. Would be a great fit in the Fiesta Bowl if that game wasn't picking last.
Michigan – I don't think they will have the wins, but a 10-2 Michigan team would be the first team off the board once the automatics are taken care of.
SEC teams
Arkansas, Auburn, South Carolina and LSU – All are 3-0 right now and all are in the same boat. 10-2 and no SEC Title Game upset gets you into Sugar Bowl consideration. Anything less than that is no chance. Anything more than that and you are most certainly into one of the games except Auburn who can't go 11-1 and lose to Alabama in a winner take all match.
ACC teams
Everyone in this league is playing for the Orange Bowl. There are no championship contenders and everyone except Duke and Virginia are still realistically in the race (North Carolina is on life support).
Big East teams
Everyone here is in the race because they are all awful. Even Syracuse and Louisville who, while not at all good, are better than expected, might have shots at this thing this season.
Non-BCS schools
TCU – The most likely team if Boise St. falters. Current poll standing could see them in the top four and automatically in also. Need either a Boise St. loss or Boise St. in the title game.
Utah – Same as TCU with no real shot at the top four barring chaos.
Air Force – If Air Force runs the table in the MWC, they are going to one of the big money game somewhere at 11-1, even if it means two non-BCS teams again.
Nevada – Sitting on the cusp of the polls, could be 11-0 and set for a winner take all game against Boise St. in the season finale.
Fresno St. - Sam spot as Nevada with the Boise game a few weeks before.
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