May 18, 2010

Why the USA won't win the World Cup anytime soon - Part 1



Way back in the mid-1990s after the United States hosted the 1994 World Cup and exceeded expectations by reaching the knockout stages and MLS was formed soon after, soccer was riding high in the United States. US soccer created a plan to win the World Cup by 2010. While the US has greatly improved, a World Cup title is not going to happen this year and its not going to happen anytime soon. Here is a look at some of the reasons why the Americans remain at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the world in soccer.

People in the US play sports other than soccer. In much of the rest of the world, kids play soccer first and everything else 2nd.

More after the jump
Who are the traditional soccer powers? Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy, Spain, France, England, and the Netherlands would all be in that discussion. In all of those countries, soccer is the number one sport. Looking at all of those countries, what other sports are they traditionally good at?

The answer is nothing, especially in team sports. Each because of good coaching at various times or one or two great players has made in mark in other team sports at times, but they are all largely irrelevant. Brazil had a brief run in basketball in the late 1980s with Oscar Schmidt, Argentina has had a strong run recently with Manu Ginobili and Luis Scola as has Spain with Pau Gasol, and Germany had a decent run in hockey reaching a world championship semifinal and qualifying for the Olympics multiple times behind goaltender Olaf Kolzig despite having little other talent.

In the US, soccer is like those other sports. We are capable of getting into the tournament every time (though this could be as much a function of being in North America and taking advantage of continental qualifying in one of the worlds weakest soccer regions), but it would take a transcendent superstar level player the likes of which we have never produced in soccer to be a real contender. Even if we had that kind of player or two of them, it would only make the country a contender, nothing more. Of all those teams mentioned earlier in the dominant in soccer and occasional winner in any other area, the only ones to win a world championship or an Olympic gold medal in any of the team sports are Spain and Argentina and they were helped by a historically bad US national team when they won earlier this decade.

Now look at the US. Our best athletes don't play soccer like the best athletes in the traditional soccer powers do. Our best play football, basketball, and baseball (though in dwindling numbers). There are a few reasons why this is.

First, the best leagues for football, basketball, and baseball are in the United States. For soccer, playing at the highest level and making the most money requires a move to Europe. Most Americans aren't moving to Europe for sports, and even if they do, its because its a second option in basketball to continue their career, not a first career. I don't believe most Americans are willing to make that move, and even fewer are in a position to commit to that type of move at age 18 or even earlier in some cases.

Another reason is a lack of statistics to prove who the best players are and allow us as fans concrete arguments to make as we discuss sports over the water cooler or as we watch a game. Baseball has a tradition steeped in individual numbers. ERA, homeruns, batting average, RBIs and all of its ilk have defined baseball players for generations. In football, while team success is more important, there are a few mythical numbers: 2000 yards rushing, 5000 yards passing, 100 catches. In addition, there are numbers like tackles and interceptions to put a premium on defense and give a statistical value to everyone (except offensive linemen and those guys are too big and slow to be playing most other positions in nearly any other sport). In basketball, we have all the per game averages like points, rebounds and assists once again giving us as fans something else to look at and driving interest in the game.

In soccer, we have goals, something that only a few players score and not much else. The reliance on statistics in other sports has given us trouble in soccer when the man of the match is named or MVP awards are handed out. The average American fan finds it difficult to understand when a player is named man of the match as a defender with no concrete statistics to see in a 1-0 win when somebody else scored the goal.

Finally, American athletes don't play soccer because there is a lack of exposure. For the most part, soccer is avoided on SportsCenter or it is treated like an afterthought. A few years ago when Liverpool and AC Milan played in the Champions League Final (the most important soccer competition other than the World Cup), the game was so good ESPN re-aired the match twice over a two day period. The game had six goals and a penalty kick shootout. Nothing else happened during the day in sports and the highlights shown were a one-minute clip with 30 seconds of one of the analysts breaking down Liverpool's comeback.

On that same SportsCenter (it was an afternoon show less than an hour after the game had finished), there were full segments devoted to that nights NBA playoff game (it was during the conference finals), daytime baseball highlights, and the NFL offseason. People want to be famous and seen on SportsCenter. There is no opportunity for that to happen consistently in soccer except during the World Cup.

Part 2 next week - MLS and player development

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