Number 2 MMA promotion Strikeforce returns with its first card since the CBS debacle last month and it should be, at the very least, entertaining unlike the CBS card last month. Here is my preview of the main card preview of this weekend's event from St. Louis airing Saturday night on Showtime.
Main Event - Strikeforce Heavyweight Title
Alistair Overeem vs Brett Rogers
Overeem is set to finally defend his title for the first time after winning it in 2007 against Rogers, loser of his last fight against Fedor Emelianenko, but 10-1 for his career.
For those unfamiliar with Overeem (or those who have only seen him as a middling light heavyweight in Pride FC), 'The Demolition Man' has bulked up into becoming a huge heavyweight at 6'4' 260 lbs. while retaining much of his speed from when he was cutting weight to 205 lbs. and combining that with striking ability that took him into the semi-finals of the K-1 World Grand Prix kickboxing tournament in Japan last year.
Rogers is a primarily standup fighter who it a one-trick pony: knockout. It is a crowd pleasing style, particularly among heavyweights and while his competition before knocking out Andrei Arlovski last June has not been great, he has knocked out every opponent he has faced except the aforementioned Emelianenko.
Style-wise, I expect this to be fought nearly entirely on the feet. Rogers has shown little inclination to take fights to the ground while Overeem has to think his K-1 kickboxing (K-1 is the best kickboxing promotion in the world by a mile) pedigree will give him an advantage on the feet in this fight.
The pick: While this is scheduled for five rounds, it would be a shock to most if this even gets out of round one and it certainly isn't going the distance. While I have great respect for Rogers as a fighter, Overeem is as strong, faster, has a striking advantage, and in the event it goes to the ground, has shown the ability to submit people. Overeem by TKO round 1.
Arlovski/Silva and the rest of the main card after the jump
Heavyweights - Andrei Arlovski vs Antonio Silva
Until his upset loss to Rogers last June, Arlovski was ranked in the top 5 in the world at heavyweight by nearly anyone, but I see no way other than a quick knockout for him to win this fight. Silva has shown KO power in the past, is better on the ground, is bigger, and Arlovski's chin is not exactly something to write home about considering his six career knockout losses including his last two bouts.
Silva by KO round 2
Middleweights - Ronaldo 'Jacare' Souza vs Joey Villasenor
This fight should be an intriguing style matchup, but I ultimately favor Jacare. His ground game is among the best in the world and I can't imagine him having too much problem getting the fight to the ground against Villasenor. His only risk is a KO coming in for the takedown, but his experience should keep that from happening. The submission will come eventually.
Souza by submission round 3
Light Heavyweight - Roger Gracie vs Kevin Randleman
Randleman is over the hill and far from the fighter he was earlier in his career when he won the UFC heavyweight title and was one of the most feared fighters in Pride. Now, at 38 and having battled serious injuries including a case of staph infection leading up to this fight, he seems to be fighting just because he gets paid decently off his name. Any competent opponent should maul Randleman in whatever his strength is, and with a Gracie in there, even a fairly inexperienced one, that will be submission.
Gracie by submission round 1
Light Heavyweight - Antwain Britt vs Rafael 'Feijao' Cavalcante
Before an upset loss to Mike Kyle last June, Feijao had been being prepped for stardom. That loss derailed everything and in his last fight, he found himself demoted to a Challengers card to rebuild his confidence and reputation. Britt, meanwhile is a powerful wrestler who hasn't put it all together yet. The winner here moves forward on course to a potential fight well down the road with Muhammad 'King Mo' Lawal or Dan Henderson while the loser is left with little prospects in Strikeforce's weak light heavyweight division. The fight itself will come down to Britt's wrestling against Cavalcante's sprawl. Given those options, I choose Britt. He has more tools at his disposal.
Britt by decision
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