College Football: Overrated/Underrated

ACC
Overrated – Virginia Tech – Want proof the Hokies are considered a national power? Look at their ranking of 15. There is no running back, still a quarterback controversy, no wide receivers, and plenty of questions on defense. The team will still be good, but not top 15 good. Expect a loss at Nebraska at the end of September and some wins against the pathetic ACC to prop them up before losing in the ACC Title Game and in the bowl game.
Underrated – Maryland – At least there is a team worthy of this spot this year, unlike in previous years where the entire league except for maybe Wake Forest has been overrated. The Terps return a whole bunch of starters and could be dangerous like the 9-4 squad of two seasons ago.
Big East
Overrated – Pittsburgh – This team shouldn’t be getting votes for the national rankings. They were bad last year with one great defensive game (and the defensive coordinator who engineered it is gone to Auburn). Will they be improved? Yes. Are they a top-25 team? No, teams that go 8-4 or 7-5 in the Big East don’t finish anywhere near the top 25.
Underrated – Louisville – Am I the only one thinking Louisville is in for a big bounce back season. Hunter Cantwell is quite capable a quarterback and many of the problems left over from the Petrino era are now gone. With an easy schedule early to gain confidence, a 6-0 start is possible. If the Cardinals can beat South Florida in game seven, they should be 8-0 and ranked in the top ten when they visit Pittsburgh on November 8.
Big 12
Overrated – Texas – The Longhorns have been overrated since Vince Young left. At a ranking of 10 in the coaches’ poll, it seems Texas is highly ranked because it is Texas. The defense will take a year to fix and the offense without Jamaal Charles could be pedestrian this season, especially since Colt McCoy hasn’t been great since being knocked out of the Kansas St. game in 2006.
Underrated – Colorado – Call me crazy, but Dan Hawkins has something cooking here. They have gone from 2-10 to 6-7 to what I think will be a surprising season this year. With a non-conference schedule including West Virginia and Florida St., the Buffaloes will have chances to make an impression in non-conference play. Along with that, I expect them to beat Texas at home and beat either Kansas or Missouri. Do that along with a split against West Virginia and Florida St., and 8-4 and a top 25 ranking probably await at the end of the year.
Big 10
Overrated – Michigan – That the Wolverines are ranked in the coaches’ poll anywhere is shocking to me. Has anyone looked back on Rich Rodriguez’s first season with West Virginia? It was a 3-8 disaster in part because the offense had no parts to fit the system. I recall retired Mountaineer coach Don Nehlen saying he would have won seven games with that bunch. That said, Michigan won’t be as bad as that Mountaineer team (that West Virginia team had no talent on defense whatsoever) and they may turn out to be a fringe top 25 team by the end of the year, but with all their losses and an offensive system change, Michigan shouldn’t be anywhere near ranked right now.
Underrated – Illinois – Everyone seems to be dropping Illinois in the rankings because of running back questions. That seems crazy to me. Last time I checked, running back is probably the easiest position in football to play, and Illinois runs a spread offense. Arrelious Benn could switch from big time receiver to a Percy Harvin type role and the running game will be fine. If the running game is fine, Illinois will be fine as Juice Williams will continue to improve as a passer.
Pac-10
Overrated – None – It is tough to overrate anyone when only three teams are ranked and all were elite teams last season. Maybe UCLA is overrated, but most seem to realize this team is a year or two away.
Underrated – Cal – Last year, Cal was close to the number one ranking, then went into the tank. This year, nobody is talking about the Bears after last year’s collapse. In reality, Cal is not as good as they showed in beating Tennessee and Oregon last season, but they are not the bad team that lost to Washington and Stanford either. Expect an 8-4 or 9-3 type year that gets them ranked around 20 at the end of the season, a big jump compared to the 6-6 predictions I have seen in some places.
SEC
Overrated – LSU – Am I the only one who thinks LSU is in for a fall this season? Les Miles has talked about a using a true freshman quarterback. That should be enough to scare people away from this team as it means the two quarterbacks they have right now aren’t good enough to hold a top 10 ranking. I could see LSU easily having a year like the 8-5 2002 campaign except that there is no non-conference game of any challenge to speak of.
Underrated – None – When the entire league is being put on a pedestal and average teams like Alabama and South Carolina are being talked about like they should wins most other BCS conferences, there is no way any team is underrated in the league. If I had to make a choice, it would be Mississippi St., but they won’t win eight games again.
Non-BCS
Overrated – Fresno St. – I just don’t see why everyone is saying this is the best team of the Pat Hill era. It’s not, but the record might say it is. The Bulldogs are going to lose to Rutgers and probably Wisconsin, but will beat UCLA. Then they will run the table against a weak WAC this season on the way to 10-2 and a successful top 25 season.
Underrated – Utah – This will change after they beat Michigan week one, but the Utes are a legitimate BCS threat to the point that the Utah-BYU game could be a battle of undefeated teams.