Sep 1, 2012

Vuelta Stage 14 - Rodriguez wins (again) Round 1 of the Circle of Death Climbs


Today's Stage: Circle of Death – Part 1. Five climbs including a finish on the brutal Puerto de Ancares climb.

Who won today's stage? Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) has followed this script quite bit: Follow wheels and then use his superior finishing kick to take a few seconds and win the time bonus by winning the stage. Today was much the same with a slightly different story as Rodriguez was briefly dropped by Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) before fighting back and passing him at the end.

What matters in the GC race? Rodriguez extended his lead over Contador to 22 seconds and also made it a two-man race for the overall victory. Chris Froome (Team Sky) struggled and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) is still being hurt seriously by the 50 seconds he lost on stage four because he was caught in a crash. Froome and Valverde are both 1'41” behind and neither seems able to match Rodriguez and Contador in the high mountains.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Rodriguez's win stretched his lead out a bit. His lead is now safe even if he scores no point tomorrow. Valverde is 2nd and John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) in 3rd.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – Stage four winner Simon Clarke (Orica-GreenEdge) smartly went into the breakaway today to pick up points and in the process regained his lead in the competition even though he was dropped on the final climb and lost boatloads of time. Valverde and Rodriguez are tied for second.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Rodriguez still leads (as expected). Valverde will now wear the jersey instead of Contador as he no longer holds the Polka Dot jersey.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – Rabobank had a very bad day today. Robert Gesink dropped to from 5th to 6th place and Bauke Mollema dropped from 10th to 15th. With those results, Rabobank's lead in the team classification dropped to under 2 minutes over Team Sky.

Biggest surprise: Contador finally got away and was pegged back. All race, everyone had been waiting for Alberto Contador to lay down a big attack and finally drop everyone. He did it today, and it didn't matter. Joaquin Rodriguez seems to have learned from his defeat to Ryder Hesjedal at the Giro how to calculate his max and leave himself in range to peg anyone back. At this point, Contador is going to need to lay down a long attack the likes of which we haven't seen him do since the 2011 Giro on the Mt. Etna stage.

Biggest disappointment: There were a bunch of domestiques around well up the final climb. The amount of domestiques with the top climbers late in races is startling. Saxo Bank had a full train going today and Sky could have done that as well with the number of people they had until late in the stage. This is a big change from the racing in the Giro when nobody had domestiques anywhere near the end of any climbing stages. I think the racing is more entertaining when the top guys have to go mano-a-mano from early on.

Other items of note: Three more riders abandoned before the stage began with varying injuries/fatigue/fear of three days of torture for no real reason. JJ Rojas (Movistar) had a minor crash in the sprint yesterday, but decided to call it a race and head home to rest before the World Championships. Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) was never himself in this race after emptying the tank to finish 4th at the Tour de France. With Van den Broeck out, teammate and domestique Jens Debusschere also dropped out... Quietly, Andrew Talansky (Garmin-Sharp) has had a great race. With most of his American compatriots not here because they raced the USA Pro Challenge during week 1, Talansky is carrying the US banner well. He is in 8th place overall and would be in 6th, fighting for 5th if not for the debacle that was Garmin's Team Time Trial.

What is coming tomorrow? Circle of Death, part 2. The lead up to the big climbs isn't as hard tomorrow as it was today, but the finish is worse. Tomorrow brings the category 1 Alto del Mirador before finishing atop one of only three Beyond Category climbs in this race, the Lagos de Covadonga.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Is there any reason to deviate from the script? Rodriguez will limit losses early before overtaking Contador in the sprint at the end. I wonder if Contador will try something crazy like attack on the Mirador?

Aug 31, 2012

Vuelta Stage 13 Review - Breakaway stay away as High Mountains Loom


Today's Stage: A transitional sprint stage before the mountains. Breakaway or sprint was possible instead of the inevitable sprints of previous flatter stages.

Who won today's stage? Steve Cummings (BMC) attacked from the breakaway with four km to go and made it stick as someone with his track background should if in a breakaway.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing. All the contenders finished in the main group. Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) continues to lead Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) by 13 seconds.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sadly for John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano), the breakaway consisted of a group of really strong riders and they stayed away. This cost him a chance at another stage win and it cost him in the points chase as he still trails overall leader Rodriguez going into three high mountain days where he will never score points and Rodriguez will.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – The day was climbless. Therefore, Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) continues to lead over Rodriguez before the next three days remake the classification. Expect David Moncoutie (Cofidis), the four time defending champion in this category, in the break tomorrow looking for points and his annual stage win.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – With Rodriguez leading or second in every category, he will lead this until he cracks. If he does crack, Valverde is the likely beneficiary.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – Flat stages just don't do much in this category. Rabobank still leads.

Biggest surprise: The break stayed away. All day long, the breakaway never got a huge advantage. Still, they stayed away as nobody wanted to help Degenkolb's Argos-Shimano team get another win. Among the other sprinters at the Vuelta, Ben Swift (Team Sky) is freelancing on a team built around Chris Froome, Allan Davis (Orica-GreenEdge) had two teammates in the breakaway, Nacer Bouhanni (FDJ) left the race injured after being involved in the big crash yesterday and Elia Viviani (Liquigas) went into the break himself (he was dropped by the other six in the final 10 km).

Biggest disappointment: Disappointment? No way. There is no disappointment today. Degenkolb's wins have been of the soul-killing boredom variety. So having a tension filled finish where the break stayed away and no GC men lost time means a happy stage today.

Other items of note: Other than Bouhanni, two other riders left the race today. They were Morris Possoni (Lampre) and Hayden Roulston (RSNT)... Interestingly, today's stage winner Cummings was the only British rider entered at the Tour de France who failed to win a stage. The others (Wiggins, Froome, Cavendish and Millar) all won at least one in France.

What is coming tomorrow? Circle of Death, part 1. Three small climbs before a category one climb and then a finish atop the category one Puerto de Ancares. Last year, the race climbed the Puerto de Ancares in the middle of stage 13 won by Michael Albasini (then HTC-High Road, now Orica-GreenEdge).

Tomorrow's Prediction: Alberto Contador will finally show his true power and win the stage, but Rodriguez and Valverde will be close.

Aug 30, 2012

Vuelta a Espana Stage 12 - Rodriguez wins on the wall to extend his lead.


Today's Stage: The wall. A strange gimmick of a stage with no climbs until the final 2km and then a climb with sections reaching 30% gradients.

Who won today's stage? This stage seemed to be built for Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha), again. And he won again, dropping Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) at the end.

What matters in the GC race? Rodriguez extended his lead over Contador to 13 seconds. Further down, Chris Froome (Team Sky) lost 23 seconds and got no time bonus leaving him 51 seconds down and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) lost 13 seconds and is now 1'20” behind.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – As expected, Rodriguez took control of this jersey as well by winning the stage. Valverde is now second and former leader John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) fell to third, again.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – Valverde continues to lead in this competition, but Rodriguez is now really close (only 2 points). The weekend stages should decide matters or at least inform the final classification before the Bola del Mundo climb.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – With Rodriguez leading or second in every category, he will lead this until he cracks. If he does crack, Valverde is the likely beneficiary.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – Rabobank with its three top 10 GC riders was again the best on this stage, extending its lead further over Team Sky and AG2R La Mondiale.

Biggest surprise: Rodriguez dropped everyone along the way. He past successes in this race had been either by winning uphill sprints (stage 6) or by cagey moves that caught others off guard (escaping with Gilbert on stage 9). This move was something different as Rodriguez and Contador rode away from everyone else and then Rodriguez attacked Contador and dropped him with an explosive attack at then end.

Biggest disappointment: Froome was not very good today. He has seemed vulnerable since stage 8 and today was no exception as he was beaten not only by the other contenders, but by Robert Gesink (Rabobank) as well. While in a vacuum, losing to Gesink isn't a bad thing, in this race it isn't great given the issues Gesink has had staying with the leaders thus far (though he is fifth overall).

Other items of note: There was a crash today that caused two abandonments. Daniele Ratto (Lampre) and Xabier Zandio (Team Sky) were both forced to leave with their injuries with Zandio being injured far worse than Ratto.

What is coming tomorrow? Transitional stage with a flat run in. After the last two days with three days of insane high mountain climbing coming, that normally means breakaway. In this race though, it could mean sprint with no sprinters other than John Degenkolb having won a stage and a lack of sprint opportunities left. In addition, Degenkolb himself may want to win the stage in the quest for the green jersey.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Degenkolb. The other sprint teams will help Argos chase down the break and it will be a dumb decision as Degenkolb schools their sprinters again.

Aug 29, 2012

Vuelta Time Trial Day - Rodriguez survives the Race of Truth, lead intact


Today's Stage: Time-trial. The race of truth and the stage that will determine the tactics of the race going forward.

Who won today's stage? Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) shocked everyone by winning his second time tiral of the year. Not that it should have shocked anyone considering he beat Fabian Cancellara (Switzerland) in the Tour de Suisse in June.

What matters in the GC race? Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) is known as an awful time trialer. He lost six minutes as the race leader in 2010 and lost the Giro d'Italia on the final day despite riding one of the better time trials of his career. Somehow though, Rodriguez, despite ceding time, retained the overall lead by one second over Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) with a surprising top 10 finish. Still, Rodriguez ceded time to all three of his GC rivals. Contador closed to within a second, Chris Froome (Team Sky) is now 16 seconds down and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) is now 59 seconds behind.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) retained the lead, but Rodriguez and Valverde inched a little closer with their unexpected top 10's in the time trial. Tomorrow should bring a change in leadership if not the jersey with over 180km of flat followed by 2km that are basically a wall to climb at the end.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – With a rare climb on the TT parcours, points were given out for three best times on the climb. That went to Kessiakoff, Contador and Froome. Still, Valverde is the leader followed by Rodriguez.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Rodriguez is going to lead here for the foreseeable future over Valverde. Other than them, only Froome and Contador are even close.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – There was a big shakeup here as time trials often end up determining the team classification at major races like this one. Rabobank still lead, but the lead is under 2 minutes again and it's Team Sky with Richie Porte finishing in the top 10 along with Froome's top 5 not Ag2R who had been second (they are now 4th).

Biggest surprise: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Rodriguez. His time trial ride will end up as the biggest surprise of the entire Vuelta unless someone outside the top 4 manages to somehow win the whole thing (unlikely at best).

Biggest disappointment: Where were the other GC men? I know they aren't challenging the big four on the climbs, but some of them are better than this in the time trial. At the very least, riders like Gesink should be ahead of Rodriguez in a TT, even if he rides the TT of his life.

Other items of note: The abandonment list grew by one yesterday as John Gadret (Ag2R La Mondiale) left the race sick on the rest day. Still, there have been only five abandonments. I expect that to change when the horrifying mountains are reached on Saturday.

What is coming tomorrow? The Wall. Tomorrow has no categorized climbs for 188 km. Then the road tilts uphill for the final two and sheds he sprinters for another GC fight. The gradients on this thing are ridiculous including a section of 30%. The legs will hurt even though the day will likely be easy until the climbs. I expect another heartless, soulless breakaway involving riders who don't want to hurt themselves in the breakaway for nothing other than showing the sponsor.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Stages like this are why some say the course was built for Joaquin Rodriguez. Whether that's true or not, tomorrow does suit him, but it also suits Contador. Rodriguez will win the stage followed by Contador, Valverde then Froome, wh has semmed on the edge of cracking big a couple of time in this race.

Aug 28, 2012

Vuelta Stage 9 - Degenkolb wins the Degenkolb Invitational (aka bunch sprint)


Today's Stage: Sprint stage coming off a rest day. This doesn't often happen but then again, what about this route has been conventional.

Who won today's stage? It was a bunch sprint stage. If you've been reading during this race, you know that John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) was the favorite. And the favorite won...again. For Degenkolb, the sprint win was his fourth of this Vuelta in four attempts to sprint.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing matters today. Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha), Chris Froome (Team Sky), Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) remain the top four in that order.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Degenkolb was wearing the Green Jersey on this stage, but only because those in front of him were wearing other jerseys as leaders in those classifications. That won't be a problem tomorrow as Degenkolb regained the lead with his stage win. He also picked up a couple of extra points on the road as the breakaway only had two riders in it leaving the 3rd point at the intermediate sprints available to the peloton. Overall leader Joaquin Rodriguez is second and Alejandro Valverde is still third.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – Another climbless day leaves Valverde in the Polka Dots for another day. This Vuelta semms to go back and forth. It's either a ton of climbs and a summit finish or no climbs whatsoever.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Rodriguez is going to lead here for the foreseeable future over Valverde. Other than them, only Froome and Contador are even close.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – No time gaps of note here. Rabobank still lead Ag2r La Mondiale by 2'27”

Biggest surprise: Everyone allowed Degenkolb's Argos-Shimano team to not be the main team chasing the breakaway. At this point, nobody, even the other sprinter teams should do any work. Make argos tire themselves out, even if it means giving a stage away. That's the only way to beat Degenkolb here.

Biggest disappointment: Only two riders went into the breakaway and they were from the dead weight teams of Andalucia and Caja Rural. At this point, I wonder why they are in the race. They just can't compete at this level unlike the French and Italian Pro Continental teams.

Other items of note: The USA Pro Challenge finished with a time trial on Sunday and got a surprise overall winner in Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Sharp). Behind Vande Velde was Tejay van Garderen (BMC) and then Levi Leipheimer (OPQS)... For those not at the Vuelta, there is some time off before the Canadian World Tour races in Montreal and Quebec. Philippe Gilbert (BMC) won both of those last season but won't be defending those titles as he is racing the Vuelta.

What is coming tomorrow? Time trial. The race of truth and a huge day that will determine tactics for the massive mountains days that are coming this weekend. Oh, and there is a category 3 climb on the TT course. Since we can't have an important day in this Vuelta without climbing of course.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Tony Martin is the only TT specialist in the field so he is a good pick as are Chris Froome and Alberto Contador.

Aug 26, 2012

Vuelta Stage 9 - One for Opportunists


Today's Stage: Interesting downhill stage away from the mountains towards to Barcelona, with a little category 3 hill near the end to launch attackers.

Who won today's stage? Philippe Gilbert (BMC) won his first race of the season outkicking overall leader Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha). The win has to be a relief for Gilbert considering his struggles this season after winning 18 races last season including the Ardennes sweep.

What matters in the GC race? Rodriguez caught his rivals napping on that little climb at the end, escaping with Gilbert. He beat them all to the line by 12 seconds (except Valverde who was 9 seconds behind) and took a 9 second time bonus for second place on the stage. Rodriguez now leads Chris Froome (Team Sky) by 53 seconds, Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) by 1 minute and Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) by 1'07”.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – With the high finish, Rodriguez also took over the lead in this competition. Former leader John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) is tied for second with Valverde. Degenkolb will wear the jersey Tuesday as Rodriguez is the race leader and Degenkolb has three stage wins to Valverde's two.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – Valverde is still the leader here with Rodriguez now second. It will stay this way until Saturday's summit finish atop Puerto de Ancares as there are not enough climbing points on offer for anyone to take the jersey (there are two sprint stages, a stage a lot like stage six and a time trial until then along with a rest day tomorrow).
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Rodriguez ascension to the top of the points standings and second in the mountain standings gives him an amazing score of 4 here. Considering the best possible is 3, he is the leader. Valverde is second, but will be in the mountains jersey. Froome is third and he will be wearing this jersey when the race resumes on Tuesday.
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – No time gaps of note here. Rabobank still leads Ag2r La Mondiale by 2'27”

Biggest surprise: Rodriguez escaped, catching his rivals napping. Before turning into a true Grand Tour contender, this was a built for Rodriguez type of stage (and Gilbert too). They have dueled with each other in the Ardennes classics in recent years and those races have finishes like this one. It seems the other GC men forgot about this as Rodriguez escaped with Gilbert. Though that ended as many of Rodriguez's duels with Gilbert have (in second place to Gilbert), this time it was more about the time than the win.

Biggest disappointment: The other overall contenders were asleep at the wheel. There really isn't any excuse for this. They should know this kind of finish is one Rodriguez has won on before and at least should be alert that he might try to escape at the end.

Other items of note: At the USA Pro Challenge, the climb up Flagstaff Mountain finally separated the top riders. Rory Sutherland (United Healthcare) won the stage, his second big US stage race win after taking a stage at the recent Tour of Utah. More importantly, defending champion Levi Leipheimer (OPQS) attacked up the climb at well, dropping his rivals (Sutherland was a survivor from the breakaway) and moving into the race lead. He now leads last year's runner up Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Sharp) by nine seconds and last year's 3rd place Tejay van Garderen (BMC) by 21 seconds going into a race finishing 15.3 km time trial today... Back to the Vuelta, there have been very few abandonments thus far in the race. Only four in fact. Enrico Gasparotto (Astana) abandoned on stage win with two broken clavicles after crashing in the TTT. David Boucher (FDJ) withdrew on stage 4, and two riders, Yohann Bagot (Cofidis) and Tom Dumoulin (Argos-Shimano) failed to finish stage 8. That is it. There haven't been the crashes that normally mark the Tour de France early on and it has resulted in a relatively in tact peloton thus far.

What is coming tomorrow? Rest day with a transfer to the other side of the country. Then a sprint stage on Tuesday.

Tomorrow's Prediction: Degenkolb, Degenkolb and Degenkolb again. He is the only elite sprinter in this field and he should continue to have his way with the field in any bunch sprint.

Aug 25, 2012

Vuelta Stage 8 - And it's a 4-man Race


Today's Stage: Another summit finish. This Vuelta isn't messing around.

Who won today's stage? Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) got his second stage win of the Vuelta, outkicking Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) and Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) at the line.

What matters in the GC race? We now know for certain that there are only four men who have a chance to win this Vuelta. Overall leader Joaquin Rodriguez; Chris Froome (Team Sky), 4th on the stage today and 2nd overall; Alberto Contador, 3rd on both the stage and overall; and stage winner Valverde, 4th overall. These four have been the guys there at the end of every summit finish except the one where Valverde was caught in the crash and these four are the only ones under a minute on GC.

What matters in the other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – John Degenkolb (Argos-Shimano) continues to lead, but with a mountain stage, his lead was cut to 10 points (25 is earned for a stage win). Valverde is second and Rodriguez is third.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains, it's blue in Spain, not red) – By virtue of his win at the summit, Valverde assumed the lead from Simon Clarke (Orica-GreenEdge). The biggest question is where is David Moncoutie (Cofidis)? Moncoutie has won this classification the last four years, but has yet to score a point this year.
White Jersey (Allround, instead of young rider, calculated by adding the rankings in GC, Points and KoM, lowest score wins) – Rodriguez and Valverde are now tied, but both of them have another jersey to wear tomorrow. That means 3rd place Chris Froome will be wearing the white jersey. Have I ever mentioned how this jersey seems redundant given that someone who wins one of the other jerseys will often win this one too?
Team Classification (top 3 times by team on each stage) – Rabobank may not win the Vuelta, but their climbers are going well if not elite. The squad has three men in the top 10 overall and those three (Gesink, Ten Dam and Mollema) have paced Rabobank to a lead of 2'27” over AG2R La Mondiale. Sky, with its train and domestiques thing it does to set up its team leaders often loses time here on mountain stages despite having a very strong team and today is no exception. They dropped from leading to 3rd, 2'34” behind.

Biggest surprise: Igor Anton (Euskatel) was there near the end. A few days ago he was in the disappointment section for being dropped on a climb he probably shouldn't have been and then he was one of the first top GC men to crack on stage 6. Still, Anton was good today, losing only 33 second and finishing 7th on the stage to move back up to 8th overall.

Biggest disappointment: A challenger to the big four didn't appear today. It certainly seems as though there are others with the legs to challenge Rodriguez, Froome, Contador and Valverde, but they are teammates (Daniel Moreno of Katusha and the Uran/Henao pair for Team Sky). Other than that, there have been high hopes for a Dutch challenge by Gesnik or Mollema, but they have settled firmly into the second tier headed for a top ten finish. If anyone else wants to join this party, it will have to be quick (like on the time trial on Monday).

Other items of note: At the USA Pro Challenge, Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) got his second stage win of that race. The riders there have a true summit finish today followed by a time trial to decide things tomorrow. Should be a fun race to watch... Tomorrow brings an important prep race for the upcoming World Championships, the GP Ouest in France. Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) will be back in action there.

What is coming tomorrow? Another sprint stage with a tricky category three climb near the end. If Argos-Shimano doesn't think John Degenkolb can get over the hill, they may not chase and a breakaway might be allowed to go for the second time in the Vuelta (Simon Clarke's win was from a breakaway that was nearly caught on the final climb).

Tomorrow's Prediction: Breakaway wins. Time for the stage hunters to come out and play.